The global attention paid to Greece is entirely understandable; the prospect of Grexit is an existential problem for the world’s second largest economic bloc. Yet the Greek economy is smaller than Chile’s, which has suffered vividly from more powerful global economic forces: China’s slowdown and Asia’s growing trade surpluses. Indeed, South America is almost a canary in a coal mine when it comes to these themes.
Their biggest effect so far has been on commodities. Oil prices, for example, entered a new bear market this week, with Brent crude, the international benchmark, dropping below $57 a barrel. That will hurt oil exporting countries everywher, from Venezuela to Russia — which hosts China, India, Brazil and South Africa at the seventh Brics summit this week. Yet the oil price dro is only part of a broader collapse of commodity prices that has followed the end of the China-led boom.
This collapse has knocked the wind out of developed commodity countries, such as Australia, and vast swaths of the emerging world, especially South America. This can be seen in the region’s tumbling growth rates, shrinking imports, widening trade deficits and plummeting government ratings. In Brazil, Dilma Rousseff leads the most unpopular government since the dictatorship era ended in 1986; in Chile, the world’s largest copper producer, President Michelle Bachelet’s ratings have dropped to 27 per cent; in Colombia, wher President Juan Manuel Santos is struggling to make a peace deal with Marxist guerrillas, his approval ratings are 28 per cent. It is a similar story across the region. Everywher, leaders’ rising unpopularity makes it harder for them to steer their countries through leaner times.
Still, what hurts one part of the world can help another. In Europe, for example, lower commodity prices have helped offset the depressing effects of Greece. Cheaper oil, metal and agricultural goods have kept inflation down and provided a fillip for consumers. They have also helped counteract the Asian slowdown, which has sapped the export vigour of Europe’s capital goods.
Sweden, with an industrial sector highly geared to Asia, has suffered deteriorating trade balances since Chinese growth peaked five years ago. Germany still shows some export growth. But the performance looks weak given the euro has dropped 10 per cent in the past year. Anecdotally, German shipments of capital goods to China are falling, even as Beijing continues to develop China’s capital goods sector, especially robotics. US exports also dropped in May, led by weaker capital goods and exports to China.
The reason for such weakening trade, be that of South American commodities or developed economy capital goods — is the cutback in Asian investment. Its dramatic effect can be seen in May’s 17 per cent slump in Chinese imports, and the continuing rise of Asia’s trade surplus. Summed over 12 months, this surplus reached some $450bn in April, according to Andrew Hunt Economics, a consultancy, twice as big as Greece’s economy. Unfortunately, because it is due to less imports rather than more exports, it is also the “wrong” kind of surplus.
Forecasting models suggest a budding recovery may be taking hold in the US, Japan and even China, despite the crumpling Shanghai stock market. Nevertheless, the shrinkage of Asian imports remains a powerful deflator on the world economy. Because of the commodity price collapse, South America has so far suffered the most, even as the cheaper commodities prices have helped others. Europe’s economies may well be threatened by more than events just in Athens. (www.chinainout.com)
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